Well after last weeks 300/1 winner Brendan Steel at the Texas open,everyone is finding it hard to get a winner on the P.G.A Tour.That's the third rookie so far this season to pick up a trophy!!But I'm feeling good this week and think a winner is close as my palms have been itching which my mother tells me is a sign of money!!
The P.G.A Tour continues with The Heritage which takes place at the most picturesque course on tour(in my opinion)Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island,South Carolina.
It's an incredibly tight par 70 measuring 6973 yards.Tight tree lined fairways with small domed shaped bermuda greens make this a course for accurate players.Good scamblers do well here also as it is difficult to hit the greens in regulation.''The golf course is a shot makers course,which requires precision off the tee to avoid live oaks,pine trees and strategically placed bunkers.Getting your ball to the hole is also quite a challenge with subtle breaks in the small well guarded greens.''source:-Golf Course Superintendants Association of America.
Previous winners here include S.Cink(2000&2004) A.Baddley(2006) B.Weekley(2007&2008) B.Gay(2009) J.Furyk(2010) This week the prices I'm showing are from Betfair and Bet365.Both are giving FREE golf bets which you would be stupid not to take.To avail of these FREE bets just click on the Betfair or Bet365 links above and set up an account,place some money in your new account,bet with it and receive your free bets in time for next week...easy!!
So let's try find this weeks winner!
BRIAN GAY(38's Betfair)
I like Brian Gay as a golfer.Hits his drives straight down the middle,hits his irons on the green and sinks his putts...simple!Has the perfect game for Hilton Head and bermuda par70 courses in general.1st in driving accuracy on tour and 4th in scoring average.Won here in 2009 by 10 shots(the easiest win I ever had)Brian's game is hot so far in 2011 with only 1 missed cut and two top 5's and like S.Cink and B.Weekly before think he can land his second Heritage title.TOP TIP!!
LUKE DONALD(9/1 Bet365)
Again a pretty similar game to Brian Gay,straight off the tee,not many mistakes with his irons but also what I'm noticing now about Luke's game is his scrambling.The guy can get up and down from anywhere!!In great form this year winning The WGC Matchplay and more recently 4th at The Masters.Record here is even more impressive-T2nd 2009 and T3rd 2010 make Luke a must pick.I very rarely back favourites but Luke is a worthy one this week and I can't leave him out.
FRANCESCO MOLINARI(35/1 Bet365)
When I think of Francesco I think of accuracy and although this is his first start at Hilton Head I expect the course to be right up his street.Doing well in America this year with a third place finish at The WGC at Doral(a course that should not have really suited his game)Has specifically picked out this course as one which he thinks he can contend.Has been putting alot better this year due to the Corza Ghost Putter he's been using and hopefully fellow countryman Matteo Manassero's European Tour win last week can give him a big boost.
JERRY KELLY(140's Betfair)
I feel like I need to put a bit of a longshot in as that's what seem's to be winning recently and this is a bit of a punt,but hey! I think Jerry has got a great chance this week.Like the previous three he's a very accurate player which is what we are looking for.4th in driving accuracy this season and doing well on the greens also as 29th putting average shows.Had a though time last year with injury and a change of golf equipment but has said that he's over the injury,that he's never felt fitter due to a new fitness regime and that he's hitting the ball better than he's ever hit it-3rd at The Honda Classic,9th at The Sony Open and 13th at The Bob Hope show this to be true.Has two top ten finishes here at Hilton Head in the Past,so don't be surprised if my crazy punt Jerry comes home with the bacon...I won't!!!
OTHER PLAYERS TO GO WELL THIS WEEK.
The next few players are all accurate golfers and course should suit so keep an eye out come Saturday for these if they are up the leaderboard.
IAN POULTER (40/1 Bet365)
BRIAN DAVIS (80/1 Bet365)
JASON DUFNER (200's Betfair)
JARROD LYLE (500's!!!! Betfair)
BEST OF LUCK!!
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Valero Texas Open
Wow!!What a weekend of golf that was.The Masters did not disappoint .Charl Schwartzel burning up the course on the final days play to become Masters champion 2011.Poor old Rory has a round the world trip to play in the Malaysian Open this week to ponder on where it all went wrong.But he will be back and hopefully stronger for the experience.
And so onto this week and back to the bread and butter of the of the P.G.A TOUR with the Valero Texas Open.Played at the Oaks Course in San Antonio,which has only hosted it once here before back in May 2010,so not alot of course form to go by!
It's a par 72 and is over 7500 yards with 4 par 5's.G.I.R again is going to be a critical stat this week as the course was 7th most challenging in the green hit stat last year.And really a full tee to green game is needed here as it was also ranked 6th hardest in fairways hit.The Texas winds will play a big factor this week too so expect scores to be fairly high.
The top two in the market are Geoff Ogilvy and last years champion Adam Scott.I'm going to skip both as firstly their price is to short but also due to their finish at The Masters(4th&2nd)think they might be mentally drained...hope so anyway!!So lets see who we got on the tee!!
Ryan Palmer(28/1 Paddypower)
Born in Amarillo,Texas this is like a home game for Ryan.A great 10th last week at The Masters shows his game is in great shape.Ranked 35th in total driving and 56th in G.I.R is pretty respectable.Can play in the wind as his win at the Sony Open in Hawaii suggests and a T9th here last year when his game was'ent in such good nick shows that The Oaks Course suits.In with a great chance this week.
J.J.Henry(50/1 Brucebetting)
Former Ryder Cup star J.J is a player I have been keeping my eye on in recent weeks.Finishing inside the top 20 on his last three starts including in nearby Houston last time out suggest J.J is finding a bit of form.Looking back on his finishes in The Texas Open reads four top six finishes in ten starts but worryingly missed the cut here last year.But looking at this seasons stats perks me up a bit and makes me post up J.J as one of my picks-21st in total driving and 13th in G.I.R-just whats needed here.
Jimmy Walker(33/1 Paddypower)
Hard to ignore Jimmy here as has six top 25 finishes in 9 events already this year,his best being 4th at The Sony Open(windy) 4th at The Northern Trust and 9th at The AT&T Pebble Beach(windy)A big crowd favourite as he's a San Antonio native-he's 6th in scoring average but his T3rd here last year is standing out like a sore thumb.Has to be on the tee box for me this week.
Martin Laird(16/1 Paddypower)
Have to pick scotsman Martin Laird.If ever there was a current form horse in golf here he is.T10th WGC,T5th at Transitions Championship,T3rd Waste Management,1st at Bay Hill and T20th at The Masters(played alongside Tiger on final Day)No course form to go on but 7th in driving distance,12th in total driving and 7th in all around ranking will do me.Could easily win his second tournament this season here in what looks a depleted field.
Marc Leisman(28/1 Brucebetting)
Marc has been on alot of leaderboards this season most recently a T3rd at The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.Playing some great golf and has only missed one cut so far this year.T30th here last year when he was'ent playing half aswell as he's playing this year and has to be picked due to the weakness of this weeks field.
BEST OF LUCK!!
And so onto this week and back to the bread and butter of the of the P.G.A TOUR with the Valero Texas Open.Played at the Oaks Course in San Antonio,which has only hosted it once here before back in May 2010,so not alot of course form to go by!
It's a par 72 and is over 7500 yards with 4 par 5's.G.I.R again is going to be a critical stat this week as the course was 7th most challenging in the green hit stat last year.And really a full tee to green game is needed here as it was also ranked 6th hardest in fairways hit.The Texas winds will play a big factor this week too so expect scores to be fairly high.
The top two in the market are Geoff Ogilvy and last years champion Adam Scott.I'm going to skip both as firstly their price is to short but also due to their finish at The Masters(4th&2nd)think they might be mentally drained...hope so anyway!!So lets see who we got on the tee!!
Ryan Palmer(28/1 Paddypower)
Born in Amarillo,Texas this is like a home game for Ryan.A great 10th last week at The Masters shows his game is in great shape.Ranked 35th in total driving and 56th in G.I.R is pretty respectable.Can play in the wind as his win at the Sony Open in Hawaii suggests and a T9th here last year when his game was'ent in such good nick shows that The Oaks Course suits.In with a great chance this week.
J.J.Henry(50/1 Brucebetting)
Former Ryder Cup star J.J is a player I have been keeping my eye on in recent weeks.Finishing inside the top 20 on his last three starts including in nearby Houston last time out suggest J.J is finding a bit of form.Looking back on his finishes in The Texas Open reads four top six finishes in ten starts but worryingly missed the cut here last year.But looking at this seasons stats perks me up a bit and makes me post up J.J as one of my picks-21st in total driving and 13th in G.I.R-just whats needed here.
Jimmy Walker(33/1 Paddypower)
Hard to ignore Jimmy here as has six top 25 finishes in 9 events already this year,his best being 4th at The Sony Open(windy) 4th at The Northern Trust and 9th at The AT&T Pebble Beach(windy)A big crowd favourite as he's a San Antonio native-he's 6th in scoring average but his T3rd here last year is standing out like a sore thumb.Has to be on the tee box for me this week.
Martin Laird(16/1 Paddypower)
Have to pick scotsman Martin Laird.If ever there was a current form horse in golf here he is.T10th WGC,T5th at Transitions Championship,T3rd Waste Management,1st at Bay Hill and T20th at The Masters(played alongside Tiger on final Day)No course form to go on but 7th in driving distance,12th in total driving and 7th in all around ranking will do me.Could easily win his second tournament this season here in what looks a depleted field.
Marc Leisman(28/1 Brucebetting)
Marc has been on alot of leaderboards this season most recently a T3rd at The Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill.Playing some great golf and has only missed one cut so far this year.T30th here last year when he was'ent playing half aswell as he's playing this year and has to be picked due to the weakness of this weeks field.
BEST OF LUCK!!
Tuesday, April 5, 2011
The Masters
Well here we are,a week I look forward to every year,a sporting and golf occasion like no other....The Masters.Played at Augusta National in Georgia,it's the only major to be played at the same venue every year.Owning a green jacket and becoming Masters champion is the ultimate prize in golf and i've been watching this happen since I was a young lad and remember my mam and dad letting me stay up late on Sunday evening to see the leaders play the back nine.This is where most people say the Masters really starts!!
For me i truly love The Masters.Everything about it is so iconic.From the drive down Magnolia lane,to the club house with the crow's nest on top where the amateur players will stay for the week.The caddie's with their white jumpsuits and green caps-every hole on the course being named after one of the many trees and shrubs that grow there-Amen corner-Rays creek-The butler cabin-The green jacket-All so iconic and still the same since I was watching...well I wont say all those years ago as i'm only thirty but 25 years ago anyway!!
The course itself is a par 72 and 7435 yards long.There have again been some small adjustments to certain holes this year which have added a slight emphasis on accurate driving.You used to be able to spray a few of your drives but they have tightened up one or two of the holes by moving tees or letting some of the trees grow.A very undulating course and you don't need to be a long hitter to win here.A premium is on a good short game though as good approaches can often end up off the green.You need to have alot of imagination to get your chips close as the greens are so fast with plenty of borrow and swales.
So who's going to win?
Well looking at a couple of interesting stats i've read recently tells you that home grown talent dominates at the Masters.Angel Cabreras win in 2009 was amazing.At 150/1 it was a massive shock.Only 3 non American residents have finished in the top 3 since 2004-Olazabal in 2006 and Lee Westwood 2nd last year.
Also if you take the top 3 finishers from 2004 to 2010 19 of 26 players were residents in the southern United States,split by state this is Florida 12players,Texas 4,Georgia 2,Kentucky and Tennesse 1.
World no1 has'ent done so well here in recent years either-Tiger woods the last world no1 to win back in 2004,current world no1 Martin Kaymer has'ent made the weekend in 3 attemps!!
Augusta National has ranked second most difficult of all courses on tour in par 4 scoring in four of the last six years-this means a premium on course management and putting-which means nothing is more important than experience here in terms of knowing where to leave it off the tee and understanding the greens.A debutante has not won at The Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979 so i think we can scratch all debutante's off the list of fancied winners.
Finally in the last ten years Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have both won this tournament six times between them so really we should just back them both,but with Woods not playing to the highs he's played at before(has not won a golf tournament in 18months) and Phil as short as 6to1 now after his win last week i've decided to leave both out....of course it would not surprise me to see these locking horns come Sunday but there is better value out there and i feel that we could be looking at a new Masters champion come the end of the week and hopefully it will be one of my picks!!!!
NICK WATNEY(18/1 Brucebetting)
For me Nick has been the stand out player of 2011.The best of the young American players in my opinion.Won at the Blue Monster course at Doral 3weeks ago(had him tipped up here!!)in what could be argued as a stronger field than this week.Just take a look at nick's stats this year-18th driving distance....35th gir....2nd putting.....1st birdies....1st scoring......1st par breakers....3rd putts per round....5th par3 scoring....4th par4 scoring.....4th scrambling....1st all around ranking.Out of six starts this year he's had 5 top 10 finishes with 1 win...Quite simply stunning form!!But can he do it at Augusta??I believe he can.He led going into the final day of the fourth major last year ''The PGA Championship''only to implode on his final 18 but is sure to have taken some positives out of that due to his form this year.Held himself together well on the final 9 at doral holing some huge par putts and never looked like losing.Form at Augusta reads well too-11th-19th-7th.Has never won on bent grass greens but this stat does not really matter to the top top players and i believe come Sunday evening that the green jacket will look sweet on Nick.TOP TIP!!!
BUBBA WATSON(40/1 Paddypower)
A few years back Bubba was the golfer who had the funny name and could hit it miles.He still has a funny name and he still hits it miles but there is so much more to his game now.Not only is he long off the tee,he's accurate now too ranking 9th in total driving.G.I.R....yeah he's good here too(2nd)Left handers have done well recently with mickelson winning three times and Weir winning once.Left handers natural shot is a right to left shot so suits Augusta perfectly.Was beaten in a playoff by Martin Kymer in the last major ''The PGA Championship'' so has major game,and if he can get the putter working this week,well it could be a walk in the park.
PAUL CASEY(35/1 Brucebetting)
Casey I believe is a major player.Got to 5th in the world rankings last year and looked like he was going to win everything only to suffer a rib injury,but has seemed to have fully recovered winning the Volvo Golf Champions back in January.With an 18th-17th-12th already this year on the PGA Tour think he might be peaking just at the right time.Long off the tee but where casey excels is putting from ten feet in which will serve him well this week.Has definitely got the game to win The Masters and his recent performances here(6th-10th-11th)show that Paul's first major could be just around the corner.
IAN POULTER(50/1 Paddypower)
Handing over $300 to practise partner Graeme McDowell on Monday did not make it the best of starts to Masters week for Poulter but it can certainly end a whole lot better!!Led the tournament last year after 36 holes but fell backwards over the weekend with rounds of 74 and 73 to finish 10th.But this shows that Poulter can play the course and from reading his recent tweets he thinks he's starting to play some great golf and maybe peaking at the right time.A gritty and dogged golfer,great iron player and fearless putter all stand Ian in good stead this week.If he can just forget about what he's going to wear on Sunday and concentrate more on winning he might have a big shout.And if he's in with a chance coming down the back nine on Sunday evening...LOOK OUT!!!
RYAN MOORE(66/1 Boylesports)
Had Ryan marked down as a future winner here after his impressive finish as an amateur back in 2005(13th)His only other start at The Masters was last year with a T14th so clearly has a liking for the course.Already has 6 top 25's finishes to his name this year,a very accurate driver of the ball and at tasty odds think he can surprise a few this year.
PADRAIG HARRINGTON(40/1 Paddypower)
Well anyone who knows me knows that Paddy is my favourite player and was terrible to see the slump he went through after winning his third major,but I believe the fire is burning again and the Paddy of old is not far away.His 8th place finish at Houston last week followed a 10th at Doral in mid March.3 top 10 finishes in 11 appearances at Augusta National shows that Paddy can play here.He's long enough off the tee to cope with the extended layout and if his improved G.I.R numbers from Houston remain this week his short game will dictate that he goes extremly close.Was only 16/1 last year and playing much better this year so great value.Would love to see Paddy don the green jacket come sunday!!
LONGSHOTS THAT COULD GO WELL:
B.Snedeker:3rd here in 2008,playing great golf this year,huge odds 125/1
F.Molinari:Came close to being in my final pick but because its his first time here i had to omit.Great ball striker,very accurate and for me a future winner of The Masters-80/1
BEST OF LUCK!!!
For me i truly love The Masters.Everything about it is so iconic.From the drive down Magnolia lane,to the club house with the crow's nest on top where the amateur players will stay for the week.The caddie's with their white jumpsuits and green caps-every hole on the course being named after one of the many trees and shrubs that grow there-Amen corner-Rays creek-The butler cabin-The green jacket-All so iconic and still the same since I was watching...well I wont say all those years ago as i'm only thirty but 25 years ago anyway!!
The course itself is a par 72 and 7435 yards long.There have again been some small adjustments to certain holes this year which have added a slight emphasis on accurate driving.You used to be able to spray a few of your drives but they have tightened up one or two of the holes by moving tees or letting some of the trees grow.A very undulating course and you don't need to be a long hitter to win here.A premium is on a good short game though as good approaches can often end up off the green.You need to have alot of imagination to get your chips close as the greens are so fast with plenty of borrow and swales.
So who's going to win?
Well looking at a couple of interesting stats i've read recently tells you that home grown talent dominates at the Masters.Angel Cabreras win in 2009 was amazing.At 150/1 it was a massive shock.Only 3 non American residents have finished in the top 3 since 2004-Olazabal in 2006 and Lee Westwood 2nd last year.
Also if you take the top 3 finishers from 2004 to 2010 19 of 26 players were residents in the southern United States,split by state this is Florida 12players,Texas 4,Georgia 2,Kentucky and Tennesse 1.
World no1 has'ent done so well here in recent years either-Tiger woods the last world no1 to win back in 2004,current world no1 Martin Kaymer has'ent made the weekend in 3 attemps!!
Augusta National has ranked second most difficult of all courses on tour in par 4 scoring in four of the last six years-this means a premium on course management and putting-which means nothing is more important than experience here in terms of knowing where to leave it off the tee and understanding the greens.A debutante has not won at The Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979 so i think we can scratch all debutante's off the list of fancied winners.
Finally in the last ten years Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have both won this tournament six times between them so really we should just back them both,but with Woods not playing to the highs he's played at before(has not won a golf tournament in 18months) and Phil as short as 6to1 now after his win last week i've decided to leave both out....of course it would not surprise me to see these locking horns come Sunday but there is better value out there and i feel that we could be looking at a new Masters champion come the end of the week and hopefully it will be one of my picks!!!!
NICK WATNEY(18/1 Brucebetting)
For me Nick has been the stand out player of 2011.The best of the young American players in my opinion.Won at the Blue Monster course at Doral 3weeks ago(had him tipped up here!!)in what could be argued as a stronger field than this week.Just take a look at nick's stats this year-18th driving distance....35th gir....2nd putting.....1st birdies....1st scoring......1st par breakers....3rd putts per round....5th par3 scoring....4th par4 scoring.....4th scrambling....1st all around ranking.Out of six starts this year he's had 5 top 10 finishes with 1 win...Quite simply stunning form!!But can he do it at Augusta??I believe he can.He led going into the final day of the fourth major last year ''The PGA Championship''only to implode on his final 18 but is sure to have taken some positives out of that due to his form this year.Held himself together well on the final 9 at doral holing some huge par putts and never looked like losing.Form at Augusta reads well too-11th-19th-7th.Has never won on bent grass greens but this stat does not really matter to the top top players and i believe come Sunday evening that the green jacket will look sweet on Nick.TOP TIP!!!
BUBBA WATSON(40/1 Paddypower)
A few years back Bubba was the golfer who had the funny name and could hit it miles.He still has a funny name and he still hits it miles but there is so much more to his game now.Not only is he long off the tee,he's accurate now too ranking 9th in total driving.G.I.R....yeah he's good here too(2nd)Left handers have done well recently with mickelson winning three times and Weir winning once.Left handers natural shot is a right to left shot so suits Augusta perfectly.Was beaten in a playoff by Martin Kymer in the last major ''The PGA Championship'' so has major game,and if he can get the putter working this week,well it could be a walk in the park.
PAUL CASEY(35/1 Brucebetting)
Casey I believe is a major player.Got to 5th in the world rankings last year and looked like he was going to win everything only to suffer a rib injury,but has seemed to have fully recovered winning the Volvo Golf Champions back in January.With an 18th-17th-12th already this year on the PGA Tour think he might be peaking just at the right time.Long off the tee but where casey excels is putting from ten feet in which will serve him well this week.Has definitely got the game to win The Masters and his recent performances here(6th-10th-11th)show that Paul's first major could be just around the corner.
IAN POULTER(50/1 Paddypower)
Handing over $300 to practise partner Graeme McDowell on Monday did not make it the best of starts to Masters week for Poulter but it can certainly end a whole lot better!!Led the tournament last year after 36 holes but fell backwards over the weekend with rounds of 74 and 73 to finish 10th.But this shows that Poulter can play the course and from reading his recent tweets he thinks he's starting to play some great golf and maybe peaking at the right time.A gritty and dogged golfer,great iron player and fearless putter all stand Ian in good stead this week.If he can just forget about what he's going to wear on Sunday and concentrate more on winning he might have a big shout.And if he's in with a chance coming down the back nine on Sunday evening...LOOK OUT!!!
RYAN MOORE(66/1 Boylesports)
Had Ryan marked down as a future winner here after his impressive finish as an amateur back in 2005(13th)His only other start at The Masters was last year with a T14th so clearly has a liking for the course.Already has 6 top 25's finishes to his name this year,a very accurate driver of the ball and at tasty odds think he can surprise a few this year.
PADRAIG HARRINGTON(40/1 Paddypower)
Well anyone who knows me knows that Paddy is my favourite player and was terrible to see the slump he went through after winning his third major,but I believe the fire is burning again and the Paddy of old is not far away.His 8th place finish at Houston last week followed a 10th at Doral in mid March.3 top 10 finishes in 11 appearances at Augusta National shows that Paddy can play here.He's long enough off the tee to cope with the extended layout and if his improved G.I.R numbers from Houston remain this week his short game will dictate that he goes extremly close.Was only 16/1 last year and playing much better this year so great value.Would love to see Paddy don the green jacket come sunday!!
LONGSHOTS THAT COULD GO WELL:
B.Snedeker:3rd here in 2008,playing great golf this year,huge odds 125/1
F.Molinari:Came close to being in my final pick but because its his first time here i had to omit.Great ball striker,very accurate and for me a future winner of The Masters-80/1
BEST OF LUCK!!!
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