Well here we are,a week I look forward to every year,a sporting and golf occasion like no other....The Masters.Played at Augusta National in Georgia,it's the only major to be played at the same venue every year.Owning a green jacket and becoming Masters champion is the ultimate prize in golf and i've been watching this happen since I was a young lad and remember my mam and dad letting me stay up late on Sunday evening to see the leaders play the back nine.This is where most people say the Masters really starts!!
For me i truly love The Masters.Everything about it is so iconic.From the drive down Magnolia lane,to the club house with the crow's nest on top where the amateur players will stay for the week.The caddie's with their white jumpsuits and green caps-every hole on the course being named after one of the many trees and shrubs that grow there-Amen corner-Rays creek-The butler cabin-The green jacket-All so iconic and still the same since I was watching...well I wont say all those years ago as i'm only thirty but 25 years ago anyway!!
The course itself is a par 72 and 7435 yards long.There have again been some small adjustments to certain holes this year which have added a slight emphasis on accurate driving.You used to be able to spray a few of your drives but they have tightened up one or two of the holes by moving tees or letting some of the trees grow.A very undulating course and you don't need to be a long hitter to win here.A premium is on a good short game though as good approaches can often end up off the green.You need to have alot of imagination to get your chips close as the greens are so fast with plenty of borrow and swales.
So who's going to win?
Well looking at a couple of interesting stats i've read recently tells you that home grown talent dominates at the Masters.Angel Cabreras win in 2009 was amazing.At 150/1 it was a massive shock.Only 3 non American residents have finished in the top 3 since 2004-Olazabal in 2006 and Lee Westwood 2nd last year.
Also if you take the top 3 finishers from 2004 to 2010 19 of 26 players were residents in the southern United States,split by state this is Florida 12players,Texas 4,Georgia 2,Kentucky and Tennesse 1.
World no1 has'ent done so well here in recent years either-Tiger woods the last world no1 to win back in 2004,current world no1 Martin Kaymer has'ent made the weekend in 3 attemps!!
Augusta National has ranked second most difficult of all courses on tour in par 4 scoring in four of the last six years-this means a premium on course management and putting-which means nothing is more important than experience here in terms of knowing where to leave it off the tee and understanding the greens.A debutante has not won at The Masters since Fuzzy Zoeller back in 1979 so i think we can scratch all debutante's off the list of fancied winners.
Finally in the last ten years Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson have both won this tournament six times between them so really we should just back them both,but with Woods not playing to the highs he's played at before(has not won a golf tournament in 18months) and Phil as short as 6to1 now after his win last week i've decided to leave both out....of course it would not surprise me to see these locking horns come Sunday but there is better value out there and i feel that we could be looking at a new Masters champion come the end of the week and hopefully it will be one of my picks!!!!
NICK WATNEY(18/1 Brucebetting)
For me Nick has been the stand out player of 2011.The best of the young American players in my opinion.Won at the Blue Monster course at Doral 3weeks ago(had him tipped up here!!)in what could be argued as a stronger field than this week.Just take a look at nick's stats this year-18th driving distance....35th gir....2nd putting.....1st birdies....1st scoring......1st par breakers....3rd putts per round....5th par3 scoring....4th par4 scoring.....4th scrambling....1st all around ranking.Out of six starts this year he's had 5 top 10 finishes with 1 win...Quite simply stunning form!!But can he do it at Augusta??I believe he can.He led going into the final day of the fourth major last year ''The PGA Championship''only to implode on his final 18 but is sure to have taken some positives out of that due to his form this year.Held himself together well on the final 9 at doral holing some huge par putts and never looked like losing.Form at Augusta reads well too-11th-19th-7th.Has never won on bent grass greens but this stat does not really matter to the top top players and i believe come Sunday evening that the green jacket will look sweet on Nick.TOP TIP!!!
BUBBA WATSON(40/1 Paddypower)
A few years back Bubba was the golfer who had the funny name and could hit it miles.He still has a funny name and he still hits it miles but there is so much more to his game now.Not only is he long off the tee,he's accurate now too ranking 9th in total driving.G.I.R....yeah he's good here too(2nd)Left handers have done well recently with mickelson winning three times and Weir winning once.Left handers natural shot is a right to left shot so suits Augusta perfectly.Was beaten in a playoff by Martin Kymer in the last major ''The PGA Championship'' so has major game,and if he can get the putter working this week,well it could be a walk in the park.
PAUL CASEY(35/1 Brucebetting)
Casey I believe is a major player.Got to 5th in the world rankings last year and looked like he was going to win everything only to suffer a rib injury,but has seemed to have fully recovered winning the Volvo Golf Champions back in January.With an 18th-17th-12th already this year on the PGA Tour think he might be peaking just at the right time.Long off the tee but where casey excels is putting from ten feet in which will serve him well this week.Has definitely got the game to win The Masters and his recent performances here(6th-10th-11th)show that Paul's first major could be just around the corner.
IAN POULTER(50/1 Paddypower)
Handing over $300 to practise partner Graeme McDowell on Monday did not make it the best of starts to Masters week for Poulter but it can certainly end a whole lot better!!Led the tournament last year after 36 holes but fell backwards over the weekend with rounds of 74 and 73 to finish 10th.But this shows that Poulter can play the course and from reading his recent tweets he thinks he's starting to play some great golf and maybe peaking at the right time.A gritty and dogged golfer,great iron player and fearless putter all stand Ian in good stead this week.If he can just forget about what he's going to wear on Sunday and concentrate more on winning he might have a big shout.And if he's in with a chance coming down the back nine on Sunday evening...LOOK OUT!!!
RYAN MOORE(66/1 Boylesports)
Had Ryan marked down as a future winner here after his impressive finish as an amateur back in 2005(13th)His only other start at The Masters was last year with a T14th so clearly has a liking for the course.Already has 6 top 25's finishes to his name this year,a very accurate driver of the ball and at tasty odds think he can surprise a few this year.
PADRAIG HARRINGTON(40/1 Paddypower)
Well anyone who knows me knows that Paddy is my favourite player and was terrible to see the slump he went through after winning his third major,but I believe the fire is burning again and the Paddy of old is not far away.His 8th place finish at Houston last week followed a 10th at Doral in mid March.3 top 10 finishes in 11 appearances at Augusta National shows that Paddy can play here.He's long enough off the tee to cope with the extended layout and if his improved G.I.R numbers from Houston remain this week his short game will dictate that he goes extremly close.Was only 16/1 last year and playing much better this year so great value.Would love to see Paddy don the green jacket come sunday!!
LONGSHOTS THAT COULD GO WELL:
B.Snedeker:3rd here in 2008,playing great golf this year,huge odds 125/1
F.Molinari:Came close to being in my final pick but because its his first time here i had to omit.Great ball striker,very accurate and for me a future winner of The Masters-80/1
BEST OF LUCK!!!
I like the picks Karl, but I think there may still be some value bets after day 1 of play - history shows players doing well on first day usually feature well in the shake-up on Sunday! Looking forward to a serious weekend of golf - no better event!!
ReplyDeleteYour right Gerry,forgot to mention a staking plan!!One that could work is to back the player you really fancy before the start of play.Take a look at the leaderboard after the first round and any of my picks doing well you could back them then.You'll miss the price they originally were but as you said history shows players who play well on the first day are usually there or there abouts come Sunday.You should get a run for your money at least!!Best of luck g
ReplyDeleteKarl I like some of the guys you have up namely Poulter, Watson & Watney. Think Casey will choke & Paddy to scramble round! Think woods is over priced at 12/1 & if he can hang in till Sunday he will pose a threat. The one guy who I think is a great price, has the game & the mental strength is McDowell and at 40/1 he is my 5pts ew chance.
ReplyDeleteMcDowell 5pts ew @ 40/1 with PP
Woods 1pt ew @12/1 with PP
Thanks for your input steve and you know,i'm going to have a sneaky bet on woods myself.Tipped him up here twice for the WGC and Bay Hill but did'ent get the job done!!I know he's close and if he wins at augusta i'll kick myself cause it will be a long time before you see 12/1 again!!As for Gmac i'm not to sure.I think the 81 he shot at copperhead was alarming and said afterwards that he was not happy with the way he was dswinging.But you can never rule him out and if he's within fouror five of the lead on sunday he's well worth a punt as he had some crazy low scores already this year on the last day of tournaments.Whatever happens were all in for a great 4 days of golf!!Best of luck Steve!
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